October 18th, 2025
andrewducker: (Default)
October 17th, 2025

A couple weeks after Gary died, back when I still looked at Facebook (I gave it up early this year), I got a Facebook ad for Borrow My Doggy. I told V it's like tinder for dogs) and they were like "oh that might be a good idea actually" so I've signed up.

Filling in the profile was kinda funny: since I was doing it on behalf of all of us, I felt like I was saying "hey, my metamour and our boyfriend and I saw you from across the dog park and we like your vibe..."

Like I understand dating apps for humans to work, results have varied. One person ghosted on us once we got to the details of where we live and stuff, one person's timing wasn't good (my professed ability to host was stymied by the request coming only a couple weeks after Mr. Smith joined the household which was deemed too much for the little blind cat so soon after his second move this year).

Someone great got in touch -- a couple that were moving to the area and both they and their dogs needed friends; they described the dogs as possibly a little bit of a handful but it sounded like, uh, a walk in the park after the intensity we'd gone through in the last couple years of being Gary's humans. Still I much prefer owners who go "my dog(s) can be a lot, it's fine if you don't want that inflicted on you!" and it ends up feeling like a little bit of an exaggeration...rather than vice versa: the ones who tell you "my dog is so perfect and he's never misbehaved" and then the dog is an ill-trained nightmare.

I assured them that we'd be there whenever they'd gotten moved and settled in and whatnot. And then I didn't hear for a few months and I forgot. Until the other day, the person got back in touch full of apologies for how long it had taken. Which is fine of course, we're still here and life is a lot and I was still delighted to meet her and her dogs.

And we arranged a date! Today after work V and I met her and her dogs at the park nearest us and it was brilliant. The dogs, standard wire-haired dachshunds Rufus and Coco, were so fun and their human was full of the kind of details I'd have offered so of course I think this is what conscientious owners should do, heh: how to manage their weaknesses (they get very excited about squirrels) and enjoy their strengths (Rufus loves everyone and he also loves treats). Coco isn't allowed off-lead right now because of recent Naughtiness; Rufus is better from an operation on his spine but not as spritely as he was before. She and her partner haven't been going out a lot since they moved here because they don't like to leave the dogs on their own for that long even though she knows the dogs are fine and I could tell her I was exactly the same with Gary. (There was a lot of "we were like that with Gary" -- but not as much as there was "oh Gary was way worse.")

We had a great time, and I'm sad D wasn't well enough to join us but I want there to be more visits. It made my heart feel full in a way I haven't been able to access in the last ten months. Dogs are so good.

By the time we got home, I already had a new message:

Hey thanks so much for coming to meet us. You were a big hit! Just message me if you want to meet again. As I said though, no pressure whatsoever.

Bless her, we were so effusive with praise for her and both dogs, and she's still like "it's fine if you cannot face these nightmares again."

posted by [syndicated profile] xkcd_feed at 04:00am on 17/10/2025
posted by [syndicated profile] stross_feed at 02:50pm on 17/10/2025

Posted by Charlie Stross

It's my 61st birthday this weekend and I have to say, I never expected to get to be this old—or this weirded-out by the world I'm living in, which increasingly resembles the backstory from a dystopian 1970s SF novel in which two-fisted billionaires colonize space in order to get away from the degenerate second-hander rabble downstairs who want to survive their John W. Campbell-allocated banquet of natural disasters. (Here's looking at you, Ben Bova.)

Notwithstanding the world being on fire, an ongoing global pandemic vascular disease that is being systematically ignored by governments, Nazis popping out of the woodwork everywhere, actual no-shit fractional trillionaires trying to colonize space in order to secede from the rest of the human species, an ongoing European war that keeps threatening to drag NATO into conflict with the rotting zombie core of the former USSR, and an impending bubble collapse that's going to make 2000 and 2008 look like storms in a teacup ...

I'm calling this the pivotal year of our times, just as 1968 was the pivotal year of the post-1945 system, for a number of reasons.

It's pretty clear now that a lot of the unrest we're seeing—and the insecurity-induced radicalization—is due to an unprecedented civilizational energy transition that looks to be more or less irreversible at this point.

Until approximately 1750, humanity's energy budget was constrained by the available sources: muscle power, wind power (via sails and windmills), some water power (via water wheels), and only heat from burning wood and coal (and a little whale oil for lighting).

During the 19th century we learned to use combustion engines to provide motive power for both stationary machines and propulsion. This included powering forced ventilation for blast furnaces and other industrial processes, and pumps for water and other working fluids. We learned to reform gas from coal for municipal lighting ("town gas") and, later, to power dynamos for municipal electricity generation. Late in the 19th century we began to switch from coal (cumbersome, bulky, contained non-combustible inclusions) to burning fractionated oil for processes that demanded higher energy densities. And that's where we stuck for most of the long 20th century.

During the 20th century, the difficulty of supporting long-range military operations led to a switch from coal to oil—the pivotal event was the ultimately-disastrous voyage of the Russian Baltic fleet to the Sea of Japan in 1906, during the Russo-Japanese war. From the 1890s onwards Russia had been expanding into Siberia and then encroaching on the edges of the rapidly-weakening Chinese empire. This brought Russia into direct conflict with Japan over Korea (Japan, too, had imperial ambitions), leading to the outbreak of war in 1905—when Japan wiped out the Russian far-eastern fleet in a surprise attack. (Pearl Harbor in 1941 was not that surprising to anyone familiar with Japanese military history!) So the Russian navy sent Admiral Zinovy Rozhestvensky, commander of the Baltic Fleet, to the far east with the hastily-renamed Second Pacific Squadron, whereupon they were sunk at the Battle of Tsushima.

Rozhestvensky had sailed his fleet over 18,000 nautical miles (33,000 km) from the Baltic Sea, taking seven months and refueling numerous times at sea with coal (around a quarter of a million tons of it!) because he'd ticked off the British and most ports were closed to him. To the admiralties watching from around the world, the message was glaringly obvious—coal was a logistical pain in the arse—and oil far preferable for refueling battleships, submarines, and land vehicles far from home. (HMS Dreadnought, the first turbine-powered all-big-gun battleship, launched in 1905, was a transitional stage that still relied on coal but carried a large quantity of fuel oil to spray on the coal to increase its burn rate: later in the decade, the RN moved to oil-only fueled warships.)

Spot the reason why the British Empire got heavily involved in Iran, with geopolitical consequences that are still playing out to this day! (The USA inherited large chunks of the British empire in the wake of the second world war: the dysfunctional politics of oil are in large part the legacy of applying an imperial resource extraction model to an energy source.)

Anyway. The 20th century left us with three obvious problems: automobile driven suburban sprawl and transport infrastructure, violent dissatisfaction among the people of colonized oil-producing nations, and a massive burp of carbon dioxide emissions that is destabilizing our climate.

Photovoltaic cells go back to 1839, but until the 21st century they remained a solution in search of very specific problems: they were heavy, produced relatively little power, and degraded over time if left exposed to the sun. Early PV cells were mainly used to provide power to expensive devices in inaccessible locations, such as aboard satellites and space probes: it cost $96 per watt for a solar module in the mid-1970s. But we've been on an exponential decreasing cost curve since then, reaching $0.62/watt by the end of 2012, and it's still on-going.

China is currently embarked on a dash for solar power which really demands the adjective "science-fictional", having installed 198GW of cells between January and May, with 93GW coming online in May alone: China set goals for reaching net-zero carbon emissions by 2030 in 2019 and met their 2030 goal in 2024, so fast is their transition going. They've also acquired a near-monopoly on the export of PV panels because this roll-out is happening on the back of massive thin-film manufacturing capacity.

The EU also hit a landmark in 2025, with more than 50% of its electricity coming from renewables by late summer. It was going to happen sooner or later, but Russia's attack on Ukraine in 2022 sped everything up: Europe had been relying on Russian exports of natural gas via the Nordstream 1 and 2 pipelines, but Russia—which is primarily a natural resource extraction economy—suddenly turned out to be an actively hostile neighbour. (Secondary lesson of this war: nations run by a dictator are subject to erratic foreign policy turns—nobody mention Donald Trump, okay?) Nobody west of Ukraine wanted to be vulnerable to energy price warfare as a prelude to actual fighting, and PV cells are now so cheap that it's cheaper to install them than it is to continue mining coal to feed into existing coal-fired power stations.

This has not gone unnoticed by the fossil fuel industry, which is collectively shitting itself. After a couple of centuries of prospecting we know pretty much where all the oil, coal, and gas reserves are buried in the ground. (Another hint about Ukraine: Ukraine is sitting on top of over 670 billion cubic metres of natural gas: to the dictator of a neighbouring resource-extraction economy this must have been quite a draw.) The constant propaganda and astroturfed campaigns advocating against belief in climate change must be viewed in this light: by 2040 at the latest, those coal, gas, and oil land rights must be regarded as stranded assets that can't be monetized, and the land rights probably have a book value measured in trillions of dollars.

China is also banking on the global shift to transport using EVs. High speed rail is almost always electrified (not having to ship an enormous mass of heavy fuel around helps), electric cars are now more convenient than internal combustion ones to people who live in dense population areas, and e-bikes don't need advocacy any more (although roads and infrastructure friendly to non-motorists—pedestrians and public transport as well as cyclists—is another matter).

Some forms of transport can't obviously be electrified. High capacity/long range aviation is one—airliners get lighter as they fly because they're burning off fuel. A hypothetical battery powered airliner can't get lighter in flight: it's stuck with the dead weight of depleted cells. (There are some niches for battery powered aircraft, including short range/low payload stuff, air taxis, and STOVL, but they're not going to replace the big Airbus and Boeing fleets any time soon.)

Some forms of transport will become obsolescent in the wake of a switch to EVs. About half the fossil fuel powered commercial shipping in use today is used to move fossil fuels around. We're going to be using crude oil for the foreseeable future, as feedstock for the chemical and plastics industries, but they account for a tiny fraction of the oil we burn for transport, including shipping. (Plastic recycling is over-hyped but might eventually get us out of this dependency—if we ever get it to work efficiently.)

So we're going through an energy transition period unlike anything since the 1830s or 1920s and it's having some non-obvious but very important political consequences, from bribery and corruption all the way up to open warfare.

The geopolitics of the post-oil age is going to be interestingly different.

I was wrong repeatedly in the past decade when I speculated that you can't ship renewable electricity around like gasoline, and that it would mostly be tropical/equatorial nations who benefited from it. When Germany is installing rooftop solar effectively enough to displace coal generation, that's a sign that PV panels have become implausibly cheap. We have cars and trucks with reasonably long ranges, and fast-charger systems that can take a car from 20% to 80% battery capacity in a quarter of an hour. If you can do that to a car or a truck you can probably do it to a tank or an infantry fighting vehicle, insofar as they remain relevant. We can do battery-to-battery recharging (anyone with a USB power bank for their mobile phone already knows this) and in any case the whole future of warfare (or geopolitics by other means) is up in the air right now—quite literally, with the lightning-fast evolution of drone warfare over the past three years.

The real difference is likely to be that energy production is widely distributed rather than concentrated in resource extraction economies and power stations. It turns out that PV panels are a great way of making use of agriculturally useless land, and also coexist well with some agricultural practices. Livestock likes shade and shelter (especially in hot weather) so PV panels on raised stands or fences can work well with sheep or cattle, and mixed-crop agriculture where low-growing plants are sheltered from direct sunlight by taller crops can also work with PV panels instead of the higher-growing plants. You can even in principle use the power from the farm PV panels to drive equipment in greenhouses: carbon dioxide concentrators, humidifiers, heat pumps to prevent overheating/freezing, drainage pumps, and grow lamps to drive the light-dependent reactions in photosynthesis.

All of which we're really going to need because we've passed the threshold for +1.5 °C climate change, which means an increasing number of days per year when things get too hot for photosynthesis under regular conditions. There are three main pathways for photosynthesis, but none of them deal really well with high temperatures, although some adaptation is possible. Active cooling is probably impractical in open field agriculture, but in intensive indoor farming it might be an option. And then there's the parallel work on improving how photosynthesis works: an alternative pathway to the Calvin cycle is possible and the enzymes to make it work have been engineered into Arabidopsis, with promising results.

In addition to the too-many-hot-days problem, climate change means fluctuations in weather: too much wind, too much rain—or too little of both—at short notice, which can be physically devastating for crops. Our existing staple crops require a stable, predictable climate. If we lose that, we're going to have crop failures and famines by and by, where it's not already happening. The UK has experienced three of its worst harvests in the past century in this decade (and this decade is only half over). As long as we have global supply chains and bulk shipping we can shuffle food around the globe to cover localized shortfalls, but if we lose stable agriculture globally for any length of time then we are all going to die: our economic system has shifted to just-in-time over the past fifty years, and while it's great for efficiency, efficiency is the reciprocal of resilience. We don't have the reserves we would need to survive the coming turbulence by traditional means.

This, in part, explains the polycrisis: nobody can fix what's wrong using existing tools. Consequently many people think that what's going wrong can't be fixed. The existing wealthy elites (who have only grown increasingly wealthy over the past half century) derive their status and lifestyle from the perpetuation of the pre-existing system. But as economist Herbert Stein observed (of an economic process) in 1985, "if it can't go on forever it will stop". The fossil fuel energy economy is stopping right now—we've probably already passed peak oil and probably peak carbon: the trend is now inexorably downwards, either voluntarily into a net-zero/renewables future, or involuntarily into catastrophe. And the involuntary option is easier for the incumbents to deal with, both in terms of workload (do nothing, right up until we hit the buffers) and emotionally (it requires no sacrifice of comfort, of status, or of relative position). Clever oligarchs would have gotten ahead of the curve and invested heavily in renewables but the evidence of our eyes (and the supremacy of Chinese PV manufacturers in the global market) says that they're not that smart.

The traditional ruling hierarchy in the west had a major shake-up in 1914-19 (understatement: most of the monarchies collapsed) in the wake of the convulsion of the first world war. The elites tried to regain a degree of control, but largely failed due to the unstable conditions produced by the great depression and then the second world war (itself an emergent side-effect of fascist regimes' attempts to impose imperial colonial policies on their immediate neighbours, rather than keeping the jackboots and whips at a comfortable remove). Reconstruction after WW2 and a general post-depression consensus that emerged around accepting the lesser evil of social democracy as a viable prophylactic to the devil of communism kept the oligarchs down for another couple of decades, but actually-existing capitalism in the west stopped being about wealth creation (if it ever had been) some time in the 1960s, and switched gear to wealth concentration (the "he who dies with the most toys, wins" model of life). By the end of the 1970s, with the rise of Thatcherism and Reaganomics, the traditional wealthy elites began to reassert control, citing the spurious intellectual masturbation of neoliberal economics as justification for greed and repression.

But neoliberalism was repurposed within a couple of decades as a stalking-horse for asset-stripping, in which the state was hollowed out and its functions outsourced to the private sector—to organizations owned by the existing elites, which turned the public purse into a source of private profit. And we're now a couple of generations into this process, and our current rulers don't remember a time when things were different. So they have no idea how to adapt to a changing world.

Cory Doctorow has named the prevailing model of capitalist exploitation enshittification. We no longer buy goods, we buy services (streaming video instead of owning DVDs or tapes, web services instead of owning software, renting instead of buying), and having been captured by the platforms we rent from, we are then subject to rent extraction: the service quality is degraded, the price is jacked up, and there's nowhere to go because the big platforms have driven their rivals into bankruptcy or irrelevance:

It's a three stage process: First, platforms are good to their users; then they abuse their users to make things better for their business customers; finally, they abuse those business customers to claw back all the value for themselves. Then, they die.

This model of doing business (badly) is a natural consequence of the bigger framework of neoliberalism, under which a corporation's directors overriding duty is to maximize shareholder value in the current quarter, with no heed to the second and subsequent quarters hence: the future is irrelevant, feed me shouts the Audrey II of shareholder activism. Business logic has no room for the broader goals of maintaining a sustainable biosphere, or even a sustainable economy. And so the agents of business-as-usual, or Crapitalism as I call it, are at best trapped in an Abilene paradox in which they assume everyone else around them wants to keep the current system going, or they actually are as disconnected from reality as Peter Thiel (who apparently believes Greta Thunberg is the AntiChrist.)

if it can't go on forever it will stop

What we're seeing right now is the fossil fuel energy economy stopping. We need it to stop; if it doesn't stop, we're all going to starve to death within a generation or so. It's already leading to resource wars, famines, political upheaval, and insecurity (and when people feel insecure, they rally to demagogues who promise them easy fixes: hence the outbreaks of fascism). The ultra-rich don't want it to stop because they can't conceive of a future in which it stops and they retain their supremacy. (Also, they're children of privilege and most of them are not terribly bright, much less imaginative—as witness how easily they're robbed blind by grifters like Bernie Madoff, Sam Bankman Fried, and arguably Sam Altman). Those of them whose wealth is based in ownership of fossil fuel assets still in the ground have good reason to be scared: these are very nearly stranded assets already, and we're heading for a future in which electricity is almost too cheap to meter.

All of this is without tackling the other elephant in the room, which is the end of Moore's Law. Moore's Law has been on its death bed for over a decade now. We're seeing only limited improvements in computing and storage performance, mainly from parallelism. Aside from a very few tech bubbles which soak up all available processing power, belch, and ask for more, the all you can eat buffet for tech investors is over. (And those bubbles are only continuing as long as scientifically naive investors keep throwing more money at them.)

The engine that powered the tech venture capital culture (and the private equity system battening on it) is sputtering and dying. Massive AI data centres won't keep the coal mines running or the nuclear reactors building out (it's one of those goddamn bubbles: to the limited extent that LLMs are useful, we'll inevitably see a shift towards using pre-trained models running on local hardware). They're the 2025 equivalent of 2020's Bored Ape NFTs (remember those?). The forecast boom in small modular nuclear reactors is going to fizzle in the face of massive build-out of distributed, wildly cheap photovoltaic power plus battery backup. Quantum computing isn't going to save the tech sector, and that's the "next big thing" the bubble-hypemongers have been saving for later for the past two decades. (Get back to me when you've got hardware that can factor an integer greater than 31.)

If we can just get through the rest of this decade without widespread agricultural collapses, a nuclear war, a global fascist international dictatorship taking hold, and a complete collapse of the international financial system caused by black gold suddenly turning out to be worthless, we might be pretty well set to handle the challenges of the 2030s.

But this year, 2025, is the pivot. This can't go on. So it's going to stop. And then—

andrewducker: (Default)
posted by [personal profile] andrewducker at 08:01am on 17/10/2025 under ,


The neighbours are putting in a front drive. The children were delighted to get a go.
Original is here on Pixelfed.scot.

andrewducker: (Default)
archive - contact - sexy exciting merchandise - search - about
October 17th, 2025next

October 17th, 2025: Today I fly back from Paris! So far I can say it IS indeed a pretty good town. That's right: I said it. I am prepared to go on the record with the sentiment that Paris is "pretty good". CANCEL ME IF YOU MUST

– Ryan

October 16th, 2025
andrewducker: (Default)
posted by [personal profile] andrewducker at 09:31pm on 16/10/2025 under
It would be awesome if I didn't have to have an argument with Gideon about bedtime every single night.

Sophia doesn't do that any more. I wonder at what age he'll grow out of it.
andrewducker: (Default)
October 15th, 2025
posted by [syndicated profile] xkcd_feed at 04:00am on 15/10/2025
andrewducker: (Default)
posted by [syndicated profile] dinosaur_comics_feed at 12:00am on 15/10/2025
archive - contact - sexy exciting merchandise - search - about
October 15th, 2025next

October 15th, 2025: Today I am in PARIS, FRANCE for a SUMMIT! I have bought one (1) ticket for the "Louvre" and will see if their "priceless treasures of art and culture" really are all they're cracked up to be!!

– Ryan

October 14th, 2025
posted by [personal profile] cosmolinguist at 08:46pm on 14/10/2025 under

Do I want to do a masters in disability studies or do I just want an institutional login and a reading list.

I think this a lot, but I was inspired to think it today because I had a fun conversation with a friendly acquaintance who is also disabled and has a much more academic background than me and it was just so nice to have a conversation about disability that's not 101-level all the time because it was with another disabled person. We talked about lived experience vs. adjacent experience (like having a disabled immediate family member), the social model of transness, diagnosis overshadowing... It was so good for me.

I work for one of the big disability charities which is on the toddler side of that "talking about gender with cis people" meme that I also think applies to any area of marginalization (I am honored to sometimes get to quietly observe the conversations black and brown people have among themselves about race and racism). Of course my household and my friend circle is full of crips and queers but I spend so much time at work and most of the rest of it thinking about work lately that I forget how good it is to have a break from that 101-level stuff.

andrewducker: (Experience)
Today I spent £108 on getting myself vaccinated against Flu and Covid.

Which led me to wonder what the cost of days off is to the economy. And how far off we are from it being worth the government vaccinating everyone.
andrewducker: (Default)
October 13th, 2025
posted by [personal profile] cosmolinguist at 11:41pm on 13/10/2025 under ,

I actually had the second half of my voice therapy session today, and after some initial nightmarishness with their proprietary system (on Firefox she couldn't see me and on Chrome I couldn't hear her...), she eventually just sent me a Teams link and that worked okay eventually. I asked her to just send our next meeting's link to my work email so I'm less worried about the tech going wrong next time. I still don't know what she got out of seeing me during the voice exercises, except that at one point she told me not to do something as I moved that I wasn't in fact doing.

I turn out to be fantastically bad at some of the basics of these exercizes, which luckily is a fact I could approach with curiosity rather than judgement or negativity toward myself but it is very funny to me.

I also continue to not be judgemental about the pitch of my voice; she said many things to pre-emptively assuage concerns that I didn't turn out to have at all. So it's nice that there are other pitfalls I'm avoiding even as she was visibly surprised at e.g. my inability to hold a hum on one pitch for a whole exhale, heh.

Between this and yoga and The Thing I'm Still Not Writing About and exercise generally, I am thinking a lot more about breathing and moving and how everything in my body is doing, and I am not sure I am coping with this very well. Right now I'm weary of being aware of my body in these ways. But also when I feel myself being too much in my brain or my body I tend to try to lean into the other for a while, and I'm just way too tired to read or write or think much lately. I just feel. And even that, too much.

I had the worst migraine I can remember for a while yesterday evening, only slept four or five hours all night, and got through work today mostly by virtue of it not being a very demanding day. As soon as I turned off my laptop I crawled upstairs and into bed. I dozed a bit but woke up feeling worse. Luckily, the migraine symptoms seemed to depart as suddenly as they'd arrived 24 hours earlier, just in time for me to make a very easy dinner and do a Tesco order to get here tomorrow (and I just remembered, twenty minutes too late to change the order, that I didn't include more burgers to replace the ones I made tonight; what a rookie error!).

I was left with a ton of anxiety (not unusual for me post-migraine) that I'd normally take to the gym and lift some weights about, but my mom said she'd call tonight since I missed her last night with the migraine, so I hung around waiting for that but never heard from her. It felt like such a waste of an evening. I tried to salvage it with sorting out some little things that have been annoying me -- ordering a new phone case because mine's broken, tidying up my work desk the tiniest bit -- but it's been an uncomfortable, unsettling end to an unsatisfying day.

August

SunMonTueWedThuFriSat
        1
 
2
 
3
 
4
 
5
 
6
 
7 8
 
9
 
10
 
11
 
12
 
13
 
14
 
15
 
16
 
17
 
18
 
19
 
20
 
21
 
22
 
23
 
24
 
25
 
26
 
27
 
28
 
29
 
30
 
31